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Previous Global Trends Reports

Global Trends 2010 Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World

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A Snapshot of the Global Trends 2030 Report

Track Record of Global Trends Works Before launching work on the current volume, the NIC commissioned an academic study of the four previous Global Trends studies, going to back to the first edition in...

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Future Trajectories of Migration and Issues Policy Makers Will Face –...

New trends involving global migration? In the period to 2030, I expect the powerful motivations that induced people to migrate in last 20 years are expected to persist.  The motivations of migrants...

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Could Western Europe Cope with New Waves of Muslim Immigration?

The potential for persistent instability in North Africa, the Levant, and South Asia clearly has high stakes for Western Europe, for lots of reasons, but foremost because of the prospect for increased...

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Mega-cities and Migrants

Between now and 2030, urban conglomerations will likely continue to be magnets for migration, including continued internal rural-to-urban migration in the developing world, urban-to-urban migration of...

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Is There any Prospect for Global Governance of Migration?

Migration would seem to one of the least promising areas for global governance, but factors might emerge out of left field in the period to 2030 that could improve the prospects. Global governance of...

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Climate Change 2030: More Extreme Weather

Empirical evidence alone—without reference to climate models—indicates that a general warming trend is affecting weather and ecosystems with increasing impacts on humans. Recent weather has been...

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International Economic Institutions and Great Power Peace

by Benjamin Fordham  I enjoyed Jack Levy’s comments on how the world would have looked to people writing in 1912. As part of my current research, I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about the...

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World War III?

by Richard Rosecrance Much has been made of the lessening of interstate conflict over the centuries and surely since World War II.  Whether this abstention from war will continue among Great Powers,...

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The Long Peace: Systematic Trends and Unknown Unknowns

by Steven Pinker Like the other contributors to this conversation, I agree with the statement attributed to Yogi Berra that predictions are hard, especially about the future. No responsible person can...

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Climate Change 2030: More Extreme Weather

Empirical evidence alone—without reference to climate models—indicates that a general warming trend is affecting weather and ecosystems with increasing impacts on humans. Recent weather has been...

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Climate Change 2030: More Extreme Weather

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Will Shale Gas Give a Second Burst to US Manufacturing?

In order to prepare for the topic this week, I have included some information of the current gas energy outlook, discussed very briefly on technologies then provided views from both proponents and...

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Hello world!

Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start blogging!

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Will the Long Peace Persist?

We live during an era of historically unprecedented peace. Whether we look over timescales of decades or centuries, wars have become less frequent. Figure 1 (data drawn from Pinker’s excellent new...

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Japan’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment

By VADM (ret.) Yoji Koda, JMSDF Preface It is my estimate that, even around 2030, the alliance between Japan and the United States will remain a core enabler of the security of the Asia-Western Pacific...

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Great-Power War to 2030

by Joshua S. Goldstein Making predictions about social trends of any kind is extremely difficult and arguably impossible. Past efforts at prediction have been notoriously unsuccessful, as Dan Gardner...

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